It couldn't happen here. Could it?

As a new year dawns, it is only natural to look to the future. If that’s your thing, you can find my predictions for 2024 here. But for the moment, I want to talk in a little greater detail about something I have touched on before, but that seems particularly relevant and interesting at this moment in time. 

That topic is the apparently unshakable belief that the alternative to the currently proposed affordability checks in the UK is no affordability checks, or “business as usual”. In some circles this appears to be an article of faith. The very idea that the alternative might end up being something worse (by which I mean, worse for the gambling industry) never crosses anybody’s mind.

But as we enter 2024, is that really a sustainable position? I would argue that anyone willing to lift up their eyes and look around would quickly reach the opposite conclusion, Let’s talk about just three of the reasons why.

The coming general election

With apologies for the UK focus, 2024 is the year that the country welcomes a Labour government, or at least will in all likelihood. Although it might be a little lazy to make assumptions about what that means for the regulatory landscape, most would agree that such a change in government is unlikely to mean any change in the general direction towards increased regulation.

Indeed, you don’t have to take my word for it. Stephanie Peacock, currently shadow minister for sports and gambling, stood up in parliament and said this: 

“The Government must waste no further time in introducing a modern system of gambling regulation that is fit for the future. Affordability checks will form an important part of that and must be set independently, rather than by the industry”

Do those sound like the words of someone about to have second thoughts? Hardly. As we hear (inevitably) that this government is likely to run out of parliamentary time to deal with gambling reform, that leaves something of a blank slate for an incoming government and minister. Things could get a whole lot worse.

Ireland’s advertising ban

As I write, we still don’t know precisely how this story will play out, but one likely version goes like this: a ban on gambling advertising on all channels is legislated and enforced. Racing TV and Sky Sports Racing are longer viable for broadcast in Ireland, removing horse racing from the nation’s televisions. The horse racing industry, and gambling industry in tur